- プライム会員のお客様は8%ポイント還元。対象商品はAmazon.co.jpの販売する商品に限られます。コミック・雑誌は対象外です。 詳細はこちら (細則もこちらからご覧いただけます)
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (英語) ハードカバー – 2018/2/6
Kindle 端末は必要ありません。無料 Kindle アプリのいずれかをダウンロードすると、スマートフォン、タブレットPCで Kindle 本をお読みいただけます。
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." -- Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting
"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." --Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind
"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." - Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing
"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." -- Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better
"Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." --Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception
"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." -Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly
“A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights.” - John Greathouse, Forbes
I digested an advanced reader's copy of the book, and it's one of the few things I've annotated as I went, making notes that I've used in staff meetings and 1:1 discussions in the last few weeks. The whole thing reads the way you'd expect and want; it's like talking to Annie Duke in your living room with the right blend of snark, deep insights wrapped in powerful examples, and force. I've read several dozen business and strategy books, and most of them paint generic pictures of leadership or organizational behavior - "Thinking In Bets" actually lays out a map for where your decision making processes (and as a result, leadership and organizational acumen) are deficient, and how to build a self-improvement plan to address those shortcomings. It's a bit of personal coaching in a purely positive direction, which is as rare as it is helpful.
Here are just some of the things I took away:
- Resist the urge to associate bad outcomes (Seahawks losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl) with bad decisions (Pete Carroll's play call was backing by solid data). My concern is that as we make continued investments in data science and analytics, we will tend to use that data for "resulting" rather than supporting the quality of decisions, and we'll end up with many fewer aggressive or game-changing decisions.
- We can improve the way in which we collect and vet data, and that process may challenge some of our assumptions (one of my immediate reactions was that adopting this line of thinking actually addresses the closely held belief firewall that Matt Inman addresses in his "belief" comic
- Some decision paths have hysteresis - even if you end up at the same outcome, the path you take to get there may be different and therefore your valuation of the outcome is different. The example Duke dissects is winning $1,000 and then losing $900 of it back, versus losing $1,000 and winning $900 back -- you're likely to be happier you "only lost" $100 versus the outcome where you "only won" $100.
- We have to imagine the future impacts of our decisions, which involves scenario planning, careful consideration of risks and future inputs (information) we may or may not see, and some of that future-proofing involves changing our reward valuation such that we are able to break consistently bad or ill-informed decision making processes.
Sound like a lot? It is. It's a dense book. I read it in parallel with a some "lighter" science fiction because I found I had to turn over some of the ideas in my mind and think about both how I've personally exhibited some of the impairing behaviors, and how I could better use these strategies in my professional and personal domains.
Duke is a rare trifecta: she has a solid academic background in cognitive psychology, she was a world-class professional poker player, and is currently a corporate and business consultant. All three of these "Dukes" are poured into the book in compelling and unique ways. I'm a cognitive psychologist and have played a lot of poker (not in her league I can assure you) and so I'm intrigued by the way she lays out the lessons we need to learn.
First: in science, poker, and business you rarely, if ever, have all the information. In poker you don't know your opponents cards and you don't know what they're thinking -- including what they're thinking about what they think you're thinking. In scientific research you only know what's been discovered so far. You're ignorant about the unknown and are trying to extrapolate from current knowledge. In business and finance you unsure of the future, only know some things about markets, and work with incomplete models. In these partial information settings decision-making becomes difficult, tricky, and often contaminated by bias.
Second: virtually all the interesting things we do in life are bets. Every even mildly complex task we confront or decision we make is, in effect, a bet. And bets have consequences. We take an umbrella because we're betting it will rain. We hire a new manager and are betting on her skills. We chose college A over B and bet that we'll get better education. And in these and the myriad other bets we make every day, we don't have all the facts and, because of the ways in which our minds tend to work, we often run afoul of biases and misunderstandings that lead us to make poor decisions.
And Duke lays out for us the roots of these biases and trenchant advice on how to circumvent them -- with sometimes jarring effectiveness designed to force the reader to suddenly confront what they think they know but don't. Some examples: a) Try asking someone "want to bet?" when they claim something to be true. It puts them in a totally different place than when they were simply stating what they believed to be true. b) Look at decisions on the basis of how they were made rather than how they turned out -- you can win with a poor decision and lose with a good one but in the long run, it's the decision-making process that counts. c) Emphasize the need to stop thinking in certainties and recognize probabilities. d) Stop imagining situations as either-or and acknowledge that most things lie along continuums. e) Recognize when you're in an "echo-chamber" where only viewpoints you're currently comfortable with are expressed. Quoting Mill, she reminds us that truth only emerges when all sides are heard.
Along the way we're treated to stories of gamblers, pain and triumph in poker games, the noodling of philosophers, judicial habits of Supreme Court Justices, corporate CEO's, betting markets, biases of social psychologists, a short but penetrating exegesis on skepticism, some advice on child rearing, and a discourse on mental time travel -- and no, I'm not going to tell you what that is. Read the damn book.
Duke makes her living now as a writer and presenter of her approach to decision-making, a corporate speaker, and a business consultant. I can just imagine jaws dropping when she tells a group of high powered corporate execs that one sure way to succeed is to make sure they have naysayers in corporate headquarters, ensure that they ask for dissenting views and voices before making major (or minor) decisions.
Oh, and in passing, she's an engaging writer with a sense of humor who can turn a simple setting into a hilarious little psychodrama, especially when revealing some of the weird and wonderful things that happened to her during her days as a professional poker player.