The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future (英語) ハードカバー – 2009/9/29
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
“Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has demonstrated the power of using game theory and related assumptions of rational and self-seeking behavior in predicting the outcome of important political and legal processes. No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.”—Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
“The Predictioneer's Game teaches us that we can predict how a conflict may be resolved if we carefully consider the incentives for all parties in the conflict. In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach.”—Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago
“Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.”—George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State
"Shakespeare said that poetry was giving ‘to airy nothingness a local habitation and a name.’ Game theory has never been airy nothingness, but to those who through lack of exposure or (like me) the wrong kind of exposure years ago may have had such thoughts, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita follows Shakespeare's path and opens a new world. In Bueno de Mesquita's hands, game theory becomes a fascinating tool for understanding everything from how to steer the selection of a CEO to great swaths of both the past and future. Don't miss this one if you care about understanding how decisions are made–pretty much all decisions."—R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence; Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution
“Bueno de Mesquita has successfully turned the art of decision-making into a science - and enriched our understanding of politics and business in the process. Dispensing with clichés about rationality and irrationality, he explains how to predict behavior based on the relevant players’ interests and contexts. Bueno de Mesquita says he does not have a crystal ball, but this book gives readers the ingredients to build their own.”—Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: How Emerging Powers are Redefining Global Competition in the 21st Century
“Fruitful reading that will make it difficult to look at the world through quite the same eyes as in one’s virginal, pre—game theory days.”—Kirkus Reviews
“Provocative. . . . [this] cogently argued and fascinating brief will appeal to anyone interested in complex national-security issues.”—Publishers Weekly
Amazon.com で最も参考になったカスタマーレビュー (beta)
This is sort of how I feel after reading The Predictioneer's Game. The author has a few good ideas here and there, but I don't think it's really worth buying and reading. After all, there's an opportunity cost as well - when you're reading this book, you could be reading a much better book and learning a lot more.
The author seems fairly intelligent and has some good ideas on how to approach problems. But 3 things kept bothering me as I read this: 1) the incessant self promotion (some colleagues say I'm magical, I've never made a bad prediction, my consulting team is always being called on to help make decisions..etc, 2) the frequent mentions of this magical model that is never fully explained, and 3) the feeling I got as I continued to read that half of this was BS.
On the one hand he always refers to the model and only going by what the model says, but in example after example he gives mostly common sense reasoning behind his predictions and what he advised. It's like someone who claims to have psychic ability, yet in all of their predictions they give common sense reasons for why something is going to happen.
I think if you took away all the self promotion crap, and references to the suspect model, you might actual have a decent book with some interesting ideas. Then again that book would probably only be about 25 pages long.
Bottom line: this book comes off as a sales pitch to hire the author as a consultant. He gives you enough information to impress you and gain his trust, but not enough to warrant reading a book. I'm sure he's a smart guy, but I'm not convinced in the model and I really didn't take away much from the book either.
It is entertaining but you won't become knowledgeable in game theory or an expert predictioner from reading it. The book leaves a lot to be desired. It doesn't properly explain game theory or how to deal with uncertainty and is mostly about himself with claims that the claims are substantiated, but are not.
If you are only interested in examples and don't want to go deeply into the subject to learn how, maybe this book is for you. Some people like it a lot, and some see its flaws, so check out other reviews.
Essentially (behind the missing explanations) he has parameters for
1. the influence of key players,
2. The relevant importance of those players to the outcome, called salience
3. The probability that that influence and importance will be effective towards or against a particular outcome
4. The rules of the game (eg voting power)
5 Iterations that may occur which will affect who has what changed influence or importance
These have different roles or relevance to different problems and may not all be present in a given situation..
There are other books whose reviews you should check to see if they are more suitable' ....
Depending on your needs they are
3.5* game theory -non-technical introduction
4.5* the signal and the noise
3.5* Rock, paper scissors
4* What money can't buy
4.5* Naked statistics
5.5* A practical guide to policy analysis
What he does and how he does it has been something of a mystery to me until I read this book, and he gives an excellent walk through of his techniques. It helped me focus on how to better hone my predictions about social and political issues, and it can help you too.
The only problems that I had with the book was that not enough attention was given to the ins and outs of his computer runs. Probability and regression analysis are central to his methods, and the average reader could probably benefit by getting a walk through. Also, the last chapter of the book appears to be irrelevant to me, as he does an autopsy on the Roman Empire instead of tackling more gripping current issues.
These shortcomings are small in comparison to what you'll be able to get out of this book. I strongly recommend it.