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The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President (英語) ペーパーバック – 2008/2/29


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内容紹介

With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860--including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection--Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

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Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.>>>>

Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House serves as an important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does. If you want to have the best chance of figuring out which side will win in November 2008, there is no better book to read.--Charlie Cook, Editor and Publisher, The Cook Political Report; Fellow, Institute of Politics, Spring 2013

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable.--William Schneider, Political Analyst, CNN

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book.--David Broder

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登録情報

  • ペーパーバック: 204ページ
  • 出版社: Rowman & Littlefield Pub Inc; 2008版 (2008/2/29)
  • 言語: 英語
  • ISBN-10: 0742562700
  • ISBN-13: 978-0742562707
  • 発売日: 2008/2/29
  • 商品パッケージの寸法: 15.3 x 1.6 x 23.2 cm
  • おすすめ度: この商品の最初のレビューを書き込んでください。
  • Amazon 売れ筋ランキング: 洋書 - 1,911,405位 (洋書の売れ筋ランキングを見る)
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Amazon.com: 5つ星のうち 4.0 13 件のカスタマーレビュー
4 人中、4人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 The Keys to the white house works!!! 2007/4/30
投稿者 Terrond Green - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
i first came upon the "keys" on a visit to the my local library in 1991 and was astounded. in 1992 i followed the keys in the book and it perdicted bill clinton's win that year. the first book was called"the 13 keys to the presidency" co-authored by allan litchman and ken decell.the second book on the keys is the above title by allan lichtman. over the course of the past 15 years i have called and emailed ken decell the co-author of the first book on his take on each election from 1992 to 2004. each pre-election perdiction well ahead of time was correct, even 2000 wich gore did win the popular vote. since it only accounts for the popular vote it does not take account of the electoral college votes not matching the popular vote winner wich happened 3 times in history(1876,1888, and 2000). if 5 or fewer keys are false the party that controls the white house that year. if 6 or more is false the out party wins. in 2004 pres. bush had 4 false keys against him, thus he won reelection. 2 more keys false he would have lost. and what is the perdiction for 2008? currently according to allan lichtman and ken decell as of april of 2007 the party in power as of now have 7 false keys against them, one more than necessary to perdict defeat of the republicans hold on the white house. don't take my word for it, go to your local library or book store to read for yourself(the keys to the white house,2005) by allan lichtman or the 13 keys to the presidency by allan lichtman and ken decell,1990). forgive me for some misspellings or some shaky grammar. writing is not my strong suit.
2 人中、2人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 3.0 Betting on Election 2016/5/3
投稿者 Amazon Customer - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
Good ideas but easy to look back. Much qualitative judgement to support statistical premise. Let's see published predictions first.
5つ星のうち 5.0 Five Stars 2017/1/19
投稿者 D. Stein - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
He was right! Saw him prior to the elections and could not believe this could be but it was
1 人中、0人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 4.0 Did the keys fail foe 2016 election 2016/12/27
投稿者 Wilbert J. Morell - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
Very interesting, but did the keys fail in the 2016 presidential election
4 人中、2人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 13 keys 2011/10/10
投稿者 Errol M. Brouchoud - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
A very good 'guide' to predicting the potential outcome of the 2012 election...The author has been 100% accurate for all pres elections since 1980!!!!
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