The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future (英語) ハードカバー – 2016/6/7
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“A quintessential work of technological futurism.” – James Surowiecki, strategy + business, “Best Business Books 2017 – Innovation”
From one of our leading technology thinkers and writers, a guide through the twelve technological imperatives that will shape the next thirty years and transform our lives
Much of what will happen in the next thirty years is inevitable, driven by technological trends that are already in motion. In this fascinating, provocative new book, Kevin Kelly provides an optimistic road map for the future, showing how the coming changes in our lives—from virtual reality in the home to an on-demand economy to artificial intelligence embedded in everything we manufacture—can be understood as the result of a few long-term, accelerating forces. Kelly both describes these deep trends—interacting, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering, remixing, tracking, and questioning—and demonstrates how they overlap and are codependent on one another. These larger forces will completely revolutionize the way we buy, work, learn, and communicate with each other. By understanding and embracing them, says Kelly, it will be easier for us to remain on top of the coming wave of changes and to arrange our day-to-day relationships with technology in ways that bring forth maximum benefits. Kelly’s bright, hopeful book will be indispensable to anyone who seeks guidance on where their business, industry, or life is heading—what to invent, where to work, in what to invest, how to better reach customers, and what to begin to put into place—as this new world emerges.
“A quintessential work of technological futurism . . . what’s valuable about The Inevitable, from a business perspective, is less what it says about how to innovate, and more what it says about where to innovate.” – James Surowiecki, strategy + business, “Best Business Books 2017 – Innovation”
"Anyone can claim to be a prophet, a fortune teller, or a futurist, and plenty of people do. What makes Kevin Kelly different is that he's right. In this book, you're swept along by his clear prose and unassailable arguments until it finally hits you: The technological, cultural, and societal changes he’s foreseeing really are inevitable. It’s like having a crystal ball, only without the risk of shattering."
—David Pogue, Yahoo Tech
"This book offers profound insight into what happens (soon!) when intelligence flows as easily into objects as electricity."
—Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail
“How will the future be made? Kevin Kelly argues that the sequence of events ensuing from technical innovation has its own momentum . . . and that our best strategy is to understand and embrace it. Whether you find this prospect wonderful or terrifying, you will want to read this extremely thought-provoking book.”
—Brian Eno, musician and composer
"Kevin Kelly has been predicting our technological future with uncanny prescience for years. Now he's given us a glimpse of how the next three decades will unfold with The Inevitable, a book jam-packed with insight, ideas, and optimism."
—Ernest Cline, author of Ready Player One
"As exhilarating as the most outlandish science fiction novel, but based on very real trends. Kevin Kelly is the perfect tour guide for this life-changing future."
—Mark Frauenfelder, Boing Boing
"Creating a fictional future is easy; Kevin Kelly makes a habit of doing the difficult by showing us where we're actually going. The Inevitable is an eye-opening roadmap for what lies ahead. Science fiction is on its way to becoming science fact."
—Hugh Howey, author of Wool
—Marc Andreessen, co-founder Andreessen Horowitz
Where the topic is life thirty years hence, it was amazing to me
how much change has already occurred. I'm almost 90, and won't
see that future, but it sure was fun to visualize it.
Submitted by Frank T. Hayes, email@example.com, 10/30/17
I thank Kevin Kelly for this most exciting account of digital technology, the genesis of the internet streaming data, provided free by users, and sold at huge profits by Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, all growing exponentially. "The Inevitable" is classic, articulate, empowering, premiering the analytical projection of life in transformation to the futuristic world of AI.
You'll find Kevin a gifted curator in the art of conveying insight on the phenomenal growth of digital technology bringing the world together on a screen. Kevin tells about the Mac II, how it came to life when plugged into a phone line via a modem. The next 30-years saw chips halved in size and doubled in speed every 2-years, 15 times, that's 3 football fields crunched into a square-inch. Eight-years of the iPhone decimated camera sales, the iPhone 8 camera has 12 megapixels.
From the colossal list of inter-related factors Kevin has codified twelve strategic forces that will shape our future; Becoming, Cognifying, Flowing, Screening, Accessing, Sharing, Filtering, Remixing, Interacting, Tracking, Questioning and Beginning. So where is all of this taking us?
Regarding the transformational impact on humanity, the growth of AI is on a trajectory ranking with epic moments of the ramped up R&D for The Manhattan Project and the Apollo program, new industries spun off, new career fields, reshaping every aspect of life. Aided by AI we'll have marvels not yet dreamed of, new products competitive on world markets, a better informed government, superpower leadership, and another 240 years of American Democracy.
This is more than a crash-course on robotics, it's an exclusive tour showcasing a futuristic world orchestrated by AI, less ownership, more services, cost sharing. Humans prevail as controlling authority, teaching the machine, with over-ride options favoring man-kind. We must account for dangers as well, misapplication, spying, what protocol might apply to a computer with potential for cracking encrypted security codes? It's challenging, all that potential, no room for error. For system integrity, do we rely on industry's over-sight, do we need a steering committee, a Geneva Convention? We do need public policy, a well informed public, and the best source of facts is Kevin's fast moving story of Silicon Valley. And I love his style, right to the point, without the small stuff. If you wish to be conversant on AI and Robots buy a copy of "The Inevitable."
This is a book that whose ideas are meant to be slowly pondered on, not to be gobbled up quickly. As in his previous works there is an underlying sense that technology has a will of its own, it wants to go in a certain direction which we would do well to align with. What I found most illustrative were the scenarios at the end of each chapter where he shows what life in the future looks like after the technological force described in it has had enough time to play out, a positive take on what popular TV shows like Black Mirror paint in a very dark way.
The optimism that pervades the book requires the reader to take the long view, to look beyond the present state. At a time when we are bombarded with news stories about the disappearance of privacy, the surveillance state, cyberwarfare, and the automation of millions of jobs out of existence Kelly can come across as a hopeless Pollyanna, and when he claims that "propaganda is less effective in a world of screens, because while misinformation travels as fast as electrons corrections do too" calling this naive is too soft a word after a US election where fake news played a big role and traditional fact checking could not penetrate the social media bubbles we now live in. But like Kelly says when describing the Becoming force, technology is still evolving and just because we don't have a solution today to these problems doesn't mean that they will not eventually arise after these forces have run their course. With that confidence we can best appreciate what Kelly has to say.