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The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny (英語) ペーパーバック – 1997/12/29

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First came the postwar High, then the Awakening of the '60s and '70s, and now the Unraveling.  This audacious and provocative book tells us what to expect just beyond the start of the next century.  Are you ready for the Fourth Turning?

Strauss and Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it.  In The Fourth Turning, they apply their generational theories to the cycles of history and locate America in the middle of an unraveling period, on the brink of a crisis.  How you prepare for this crisis--the Fourth Turning--is intimately connected to the mood and attitude of your particular generation.  Are you one of the can-do "GI generation," who triumphed in the last crisis?  Do you belong to the mediating "Silent Majority," who enjoyed the 1950s High?  Do you fall into the "awakened" Boomer category of the 1970s and 1980s, or are you a Gen-Xer struggling to adapt to our splintering world?  Whatever your stage of life, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for America's next rendezvous with destiny.

出版社からのコメント

"I put down The Fourth Turning with a mixture of terror and excitement....If Strauss and Howe are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
--David Kaiser, Boston Globe

"One of the best efforts to give us an integrated vision of where we
are going."
--Wall Street Journal

"A startling vision of what the cycles of history predict for the future."
--USA Weekend

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登録情報

  • ペーパーバック: 400ページ
  • 出版社: Three Rivers Press; Reprint版 (1997/12/29)
  • 言語: 英語
  • ISBN-10: 0767900464
  • ISBN-13: 978-0767900461
  • 発売日: 1997/12/29
  • 商品パッケージの寸法: 15.5 x 2.5 x 23.6 cm
  • おすすめ度: 5つ星のうち 4.0 1 件のカスタマーレビュー
  • Amazon 売れ筋ランキング: 洋書 - 352位 (洋書の売れ筋ランキングを見る)
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形式: ペーパーバック
景気循環に関する仮説はいくつもありますが、Strauss氏とHowe氏の共著は歴史的なパラダイムシフト(危機)の人々への影響、世代間の相互作用の世相形成への影響に注目することでユニークな視点を提供しています。定量的分析による裏づけはありませんが、歴史的逸話を積み重ねることで、過去幾度も繰り返されたパターンを目覚めさせます。著者によれば、80年から100年程度の大きな周期は四季に区切ることができ、それぞれを至福(High)、覚醒(Awakening)、破綻(Unraveling)、危機(Crisis)と定義。人の人生も幼少期(Childhood)、青年期(Young Adulthood)、中年期(Midlife)、年長期(Elderhood)に分けられ、人は危機を経験する年齢により、4つのアーキタイプのジェネレーション(世代)を形成する。現在は、Silent Generationは芸術家(Artist)、Boomer Generationは預言者(Prophet)、X-Generationは遊牧民(Nomad)、そしてMillennial Generationは英雄(Hero)とされる。アーキタイプ世代間の力関係と相互作用が予想不可能な出来事への社会の反応に影響を与え、歴史の循環を運命付ける、というのが著者の仮説です。1997年の著書ですが2008年の経済危機をある意味で予言していま...続きを読む ›
コメント 12人のお客様がこれが役に立ったと考えています. このレビューは参考になりましたか? はい いいえ 評価を送る...
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102 人中、97人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 4.0 Fasten your seatbelts 2016/9/25
投稿者 Anand Rangarajan - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
This is the kind of book I should ordinarily despise. It contains a broad arc of history viewed internally and is epic in the worst way possible. And yet, it is incredibly compelling for two reasons: (i) there is something to be said for viewing history from the perspective of generational change and (ii) the prediction made in the book (written in 1998) that we will enter a time of crisis around 2005 give or take a few years was spot on. In addition, minor points should be given for turning the spotlight on the financial world as the catalyst for the crisis of 2008.

In a nutshell, the book advances the view that history roughly repeats itself every 80 years. Further, every 80 year period is characterized by the arrival of Artists (silent generation in this cycle), Prophets (boomers), Nomads (Gen Xers) and Heroes (millennials). Previous incarnations of this cycle ended with the war of independence, the civil war and world war II. This naturally sets up the denouement for this cycle which the authors expect to occur in the 2025 time frame. Each cycle is divided into turnings: the present one is characterized by First (High: 1946-1964), Second (Awakening: 1964-1984), Third (Unraveling: 1984-2008) and Fourth (Crisis: 2008-202X). From the book's perspective and Neil Howe's subsequent blog posts, we entered the Fourth Turning in 2008. There's nothing spooky or mystical about these cycles and turnings: instead the authors stress that human nature and culture seem to have these rhythms and that Anglo-American history is stable enough to be characterized in this manner. Other cultures may either be too stable or too chaotic to follow this type of pattern.

Prior to the arrival of Donald Trump and despite the eerie portend of the financial crisis, I would have dismissed this book. Now, it looks positively prophetic. Is there any doubt now that the combination of (i) income inequality, (ii) the economic problems of the white working class, (iii) the culture wars, (iv) multiculturalism and globalism, (v) the ravages of identity politics and postmodernism and (vi) terrorism is not going to be a combustible mix over the next decade? And that these will simultaneously distract us from combating global warming - the clear threat of the next era? While I find it hard to buy into the notion that the US will face an existential crisis (as predicted by the book), there's definitely merit in the view that the next ten years will probably have the capability of shocking us however jaded we may be at the present time.
23 人中、22人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 Well worth the many hours required to read and absorb the material 2016/4/4
投稿者 Ronnie Lajoie - (Amazon.com)
形式: Kindle版 Amazonで購入
This followup to "Generations" digs deeper into the science behind why societal behavioral patterns seem to repeat themselves over the ages, despite what we too often believe to be a linear form of emotional and spiritual progress. Despite our best intentions, the bottom line is that teenage kids (in a quest for showing independence) don't what to be like their parents, thus setting up a series of overlapping pendulum swings in the moods of people at large. Combine this with almost magnetic alignment of generation cohorts due to disruptive events (the latest being "9/11"), and we have a pattern of major generational mood swings of varying intensity. The latest mood swing that the authors forecast 20 years earlier is that the next crisis period (which we are now in) would increase nationalistic and anti-immigration rhetoric. There are many other pendulum swing patterns that I am increasingly observing now that I have lived long enough (50+ years) to see the opposite extremes. These two books and their generation-specific ones are not an easy, weekend read. They are almost like reading a PhD thesis, though fortunately without all the scientific "big words". The books are easy to understand, they just contain a LOT of information, and should yield a lot of deep thought and observation afterwards.
4 人中、4人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 Everyone should read it 2017/1/9
投稿者 C - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
Had seen references to this by commentators. I consider it a must read for anyone who wants to be better prepared for what's to come. If enough people heed the predictions, perhaps the coming crisis can be lessened a bit. The many worrisome characteristics I see in society, politics and economics apparently have been recurring for centuries and even millennia in many cultures. Puts thing in perspective. Sometimes it is a slow read but the depth of the research gives it credibility.
12 人中、12人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 Prepare to have your world turned upside down 2013/1/3
投稿者 Scott Barstow - (Amazon.com)
形式: Kindle版 Amazonで購入
This book was recently recommended to me as we were discussing the impending fiscal cliff of 2013.

Most of the reviews here talk in great detail about what this book covers.

What I can say is it has completely changed the lens through which I am viewing current events. I only wish I had read this amazing work 10 years ago. I can safely say it would have altered decisions I have made.

I will say that the first part of the book can get a bit monotonous as the various periods of history are explored. However, I will tell you it is worth it to pay attention and to persevere. The last 30-40% of this book will have you on the edge of your chair as you realize the authors, for the most part, saw in 1997 what is happening today. The accuracy of the predictions of life in our time is amazing.

Read this, take lots of notes, and recommend it to a friend. It is one of the essential reads of our time.
3 人中、3人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 A Scary History Book 2016/9/15
投稿者 Nedly - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
Which generational grouping do (will) you occupy? According to these authors your place is already reserved. This is a chilling yet instructional look at how the peoples of the world reshape our world every four generations (turnings). We are currently in "The Fourth Turning" now. Our institutions, the fabric of our society is being attacked from within and outside our borders. My generation has made a mess of it and succeeding generations will have to put it right if our country is to survive. It is true and a pattern that has been repeated for centuries. The best history book I've ever read.
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