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Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis (Portfolio) (英語) ハードカバー – 2011/11/10

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内容紹介

In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

 

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.

レビュー

“One of the most urgent books of the fall.”

—Mike Allen, Politico

“Let’s hope he’s wrong.”

Financial Times

“Rickards . . . has written one of the scariest books I’ve read this year. Though I was tempted at first to dismiss him as alarmist, his intelligent reasoning soon convinced me that we have more to fear than fear itself. Part history, part primer and analysis, the text covers topics ranging from the “misuse of economics” to complexity theory. The pieces, although disparate, fit together snugly, as in one of those mystery jigsaw puzzles that come with clues in lieu of cover art. The picture that emerges is dark yet comprehensive and satisfying.”

—Bloomberg Businessweek

“Unsettling . . . fascinating . . . a thorough analysis of how nations have manipulated their currencies . . . with disastrous consequences.”

—Fort Worth Star-Telegram

“Buy Currency Wars if you want to learn the history and language of the global currency markets and the political economy which they support.”

—Chris Whalen, Ritholtz.com

“Jim Rickards highlights dangerous dynamics between national security and the international financial markets. What we assumed was firm ground under our feet is more like the narrowing point of a precipice. Our politicians, national security experts, and financial markets, each chasing carrots dangling in front of them, fail to see that they are leading America right off the edge.”

—Charles A. Duelfer, former special adviser to the director of the CIA; author of Hide and Seek: The Search for Truth in Iraq

“Put on your flak vest and helmet and enter the dangerous battlefield of global finance. Jim Rickards takes you through a captivating roller-coaster ride—the past, the present, and a look at the problematical future of our ongoing currency wars.”

—Rear Admiral (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker, chief of staff, Fifth Fleet; recipient, Distinguished Service Medal

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登録情報

  • ハードカバー: 304ページ
  • 出版社: Portfolio; 1版 (2011/11/10)
  • 言語: 英語
  • ISBN-10: 1591844495
  • ISBN-13: 978-1591844495
  • 発売日: 2011/11/10
  • 商品パッケージの寸法: 15.8 x 2.7 x 23.6 cm
  • おすすめ度: 5つ星のうち 5.0 1 件のカスタマーレビュー
  • Amazon 売れ筋ランキング: 洋書 - 160,398位 (洋書の売れ筋ランキングを見る)
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投稿者 tomomori トップ50レビュアー 投稿日 2012/1/6
形式: ハードカバー Amazonで購入
現在、万策尽きたバーナンキ氏は悪貨を大量にバラまいて米ドルを切り下げ、他国から成長を盗む、という近隣窮乏化政策に打って出ている。昔話のように感じていた「金地銀=正貨」のマネー観は実はしっかり健在だった。輸出競争で金(ゴールド)の奪い合いをする、というのは重商主義というんじゃなかったろうか。我々は重商主義の時代を生きているのだろうか。ちなみに各国の金相場操作の実態は核開発技術以上の秘中の秘らしい。であればこそ、「フォートノックス(米国における金の大貯蔵地)を査察せよ」と騒ぐ人たちが出てきたりする。
マネーとは「約束」だ。「国家の約束」という心理作用を取り払うと、本物のマネーとは金(ゴールド)ということになる。日本人が日本という国を信じ続ける限り「円」という紙の束は「我らのおカネ」であり続けるだろうが、基軸通貨・米ドルが狂うとどうなるのか。
リカード氏は、現在勃発中の近隣窮乏化政策を第三次通貨戦争と呼ぶ。ユーロに組み込まれて以来身動きが取れなくなったにしても、かつてのイタリアなどは通貨切り下げが趣味(?)ではあった。しかし衰退期に入った基軸通貨国がここまで本腰を入れて通貨切り下げ競争を切り札にしてきたということは、昨日までの世界がすっかり変容しているということである。通貨戦争は一旦始まればなかなか止まらない。第一次通貨戦争(1920年代〜1930年代)は、黙示録的世
...続きを読む ›
コメント 7人のお客様がこれが役に立ったと考えています. このレビューは参考になりましたか? はい いいえ 評価を送る...
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申し訳ありませんが、お客様の投票の記録に失敗しました。もう一度試してください。
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Amazon.com で最も参考になったカスタマーレビュー (beta) (「Early Reviewer Program」のレビューが含まれている場合があります)

Amazon.com: 5つ星のうち 4.5 642 件のカスタマーレビュー
397 人中、378人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 The best thing since sliced bread? 2011/11/11
投稿者 Erez Davidi - (Amazon.com)
形式: Kindle版 Amazonで購入
Jim Rickards, who is famous, among other things, for his ability to accurately predict the Fed's moves ahead of time. His most recent accurate call was the implementation of Operation Twist, i.e the selling of short-term government debt and the buying of long-term government debt in order to increase short-term interest rates and decrease long-term interest rates.

The main theme of the book is that the world is already heading toward a full-blown currency war which will bring even harsher economic turmoil to the world economy than the one we experienced in the last three years since the housing bubble burst in the U.S.

Rickards explores in depth, basing his arguments on past currency wars such as the one after WW1 between several European countries and the U.S., and why currency wars are a lose-lose situation. In short, Rickards's main argument is that countries around the world are devaluing their currencies in order to boost their exports (domestically produced goods and services will be cheaper for foreigners) thereby increasing their GDP. However, such actions will frequently be met by mutual currency devaluation by other countries or by some protectionist policy such as tariffs. Therefore, countries will gain a temporary advantage until other countries retaliate, the end result of which will be: inflation brought on from currency devaluation, protectionism and the halt of free trade, thus - wealth destruction. And in a worst case scenario, an outright military conflict.

As was mentioned above, I found Rickards's thesis to be well argued and backed with plenty of historical facts. To sum up, this book just has it all, great and engaging writing, fascinating economic history, and shrewd analysis of the current and coming global crisis.
18 人中、18人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 4.0 MY DORE IS ON CHAOS 2012/5/9
投稿者 SilverMalthusian - (Amazon.com)
形式: ハードカバー Amazonで購入
For those interested in the monetary system & the shortfalls at the endgame of this economic paradigm, this book is for you. This book explores the following issues amongst others:
1. The aggregate demand equation i.e. C+I+G+NE = GDP
2. The law of diminishing returns
3. The spending multiplier effect & its current failure
4. The geopolitical morass & ramifications of certain heavyweight nations' decisions
5. The abuse of fiscal & monetary policies
6. Complexity theory
7. The concept of money = energy
8. The spy den of Dubai (Comparable to Casablanca during WW2 & Berlin during the cold war)
9. The ultimate conclusion: paper, gold or chaos

For an economics junkie like myself, this gives me a reason to wake up in the morning. I do not give a damn what happens to the prices of hard assets, they are more secure than paper assets at this stage of the game. My money is on chaos because I do believe that this world is predominantly non-linear & so when things turn really bad, it could take the vast majority by surprise & there will be panic/non decision-making if this occurs.

We are really at the end of empire as far as the USA is concerned. It reminds me of the Roman empire at the beginning of the AD era. We are reaching our limits to growth & this debt overhang is keeping us from progressing constructively.

Thank you Mr Rickards for your contribution in this field. A much enjoyed read. I recommend it to anyone.
1 人中、1人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 5.0 Readable, Which is Huge 2017/1/4
投稿者 Matthew Morine - (Amazon.com)
形式: ペーパーバック Amazonで購入
This book was fascinating. It was totally outside my area of understanding, but after reading the book, I learned a lot about the process and influence of a currency in this world. The book gives you a brief history of the role of currency, and goes into how people wage war by using the ups and downs of the valuation of a certain currency of a country. The valuation of a currency has a huge impact on the health of a economy. The book talks about the role of gold in the process too. Years ago, all currency was mostly attached to the wealth of gold that a nation had. But recently, this has been separated. There have been a couple of modern currency wars, and this using leads to a zero sum game. The book was written before the quantitative easing, so the author writes about this process, and explains some of the ramifications of this policy. He has a negative view of the results that could happen. So far, though, it seemed to work, but it is more of a long game to see the final results. Moving forward, China is going to play a large part in future wars, because of the manipulation of the yuan. This will be interesting to see. On an interesting note, the author is a good friend of one of the members in Castle Rock. One of the cool things of being at Castle Rock is the world famous people you get to minister too. This is not for everyone, but you need a certain level of money systems knowledge to understand the book, btu the author does a good job of making it accesible.
6 人中、6人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 4.0 Excellent, Challenging, Eye-Opening 2015/1/1
投稿者 Fraser H. Haug - (Amazon.com)
形式: Kindle版 Amazonで購入
The author gives a clear and relevant perspective on the issues of money and banking in a complex, globalized world. His warnings and suggestions are important to consider - particularly in light of the fact that the scenarios presented seem to be rarely addressed in more "popular" media.

Drawbacks? This is an esoteric, complex arena of discussion. I have much more formal "economics" training than most, and I was scratching my head on a number of occasions. This is certainly not a flaw of this book. It was well written, and as clearly written as the subject matter allowed. But, it is a step or two above light evening reading.

Two highlights: I found the author's integration of "chaos" or "Complexity Theory" a fascinating and somewhat surprising approach to the stated problem of the book. In so doing, he has opened up what may prove to be a very fruitful avenue for further explanation and critique.

A second highlight and fascinating window on the problem was the author's personal experiences around military "war-gaming" using currency manipulations as a strategy. Really illustrates the problem well.

Admittedly, I do not understand all the intricacies of national and international banking. But the chapters on currency manipulation as a military strategy, and the chapter on "Complexity Theory" are alone worth the read. Having said that, the rest of the book is still very well structured and written. A must read for anyone seriously interested in really understanding the current global financial situation. If you are like me, you will come away from this book with a few good answers - but also many more questions than you started with. But they will be really good questions!
5 人中、5人の方が、「このレビューが参考になった」と投票しています。
5つ星のうち 3.0 One dimensional 2014/8/5
投稿者 NJ - (Amazon.com)
形式: Kindle版 Amazonで購入
This book works as a general overview but otherwise extremely simplistic in both the explanations of a handful of historic events and what is going on.

As a result, the offered solutions are also equally impractical that overlook their possible failures, side effects and transitional implementation problems. More importantly, the solutions offered are naive in that there is little attention paid to how the global economy can get there without all agreeing to them being the best way because of discussions like in this book. Similarly, the author's discussions on possible consequences of current policies are one dimensional. Overall, the book could work as a good overview for non-professionals but this is far from a path-breaking or detailed work.

The positives of the book are in the easy to understand and fluid descriptions of events of the thirties and the Seventies. However, when a similar treatment is applied to the current affairs, it appears devoid of the effects of many other mega-trends.
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