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よく一緒に購入されている商品
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With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything from wine ratings and corporate success to school grades and political polls are less reliable than we believe.
By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
From Publishers Weekly
A drunkard's walk is a type of random statistical distribution with important applications in scientific studies ranging from biology to astronomy. Mlodinow, a visiting lecturer at Caltech and coauthor with Stephen Hawking of A Briefer History of Time, leads readers on a walk through the hills and valleys of randomness and how it directs our lives more than we realize. Mlodinow introduces important historical figures such as Bernoulli, Laplace and Pascal, emphasizing their ideas rather than their tumultuous private lives. Mlodinow defines such tricky concepts as regression to the mean and the law of large numbers, which should help readers as they navigate the daily deluge of election polls and new studies on how to live to 100. The author also carefully avoids veering off into the terra incognita of chaos theory aside from a brief mention of the famous butterfly effect, although he might have spent a little more time on the equally famous n-body problem that led to chaos theory. Books on randomness and statistics line library shelves, but Mlodinow will help readers sort out Mark Twain's damn lies from meaningful statistics and the choices we face every day. (May 13)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --このテキストは、 ハードカバー 版に関連付けられています。
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --このテキストは、 ハードカバー 版に関連付けられています。
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カスタマーレビュー
最も参考になったカスタマーレビュー
6 人中、4人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
形式:ペーパーバック
怒ったから、次にミスが減るのではなく、単純にミスを多くした時は偶然に過ぎず、次にそれが平均に戻っただけ。
感覚で掴むのと数字で分析するのとでは大きく違ってくることがある。
確率を冷静に分析すれば、偶然も必然の範囲内と考えられる。
例えプロでも偏見が見られて、判断を誤ることがある。
後付の理屈は言えても未来の予想は出来ない。
努力をして幸運を掴む準備は怠り無く。でも、幸運をつかめなかったとしても才能が無いとは言えない。また、幸運を掴んだ人も他人より才能があるとは限らない。
その先に成功があるかもしれないのに、手前で諦めるからチャンスを逃しているのかもしれない。
以上のようなことが学べました。
感覚で掴むのと数字で分析するのとでは大きく違ってくることがある。
確率を冷静に分析すれば、偶然も必然の範囲内と考えられる。
例えプロでも偏見が見られて、判断を誤ることがある。
後付の理屈は言えても未来の予想は出来ない。
努力をして幸運を掴む準備は怠り無く。でも、幸運をつかめなかったとしても才能が無いとは言えない。また、幸運を掴んだ人も他人より才能があるとは限らない。
その先に成功があるかもしれないのに、手前で諦めるからチャンスを逃しているのかもしれない。
以上のようなことが学べました。
2 人中、0人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
形式:ペーパーバック|Amazonが確認した購入
１たす１は２という公式でもって計算できる範囲内で導き出せる答えをラン列させている本などは、書き手にしても読み手にしてもその事が正しいか正しくないかは別にすれば面白い読み物となるでしょうが、この本はそんな一般の公式を度外視して曖昧模糊とした事柄を何とか論理的に証明しようとした力作でしょう。読み終えるまでに相当な精神力が必要でした。別に難解だからということではないのですよ。漠然とした 問題に臨むと人間の英知ではこの程度の作品にしかできないのだろうと納得しました。生意気な私ですね。要するに著者の言いたいことは人の人生、その瞬間を切り取ればコインを投げたようなもので、結果は裏か表かの２通りであるという事を手を変え品を変えて歴史上の人物までもを取り上げながらなんとか読者を納得させようとした、彼自身に言わせるとアインシタインが人類科学史上に残した価値と同等程度の問題定義であるとのことですが、その論理展開を私自身は読み取れませんでした。その様な訳でぜひあなたもこの本を手にしていただいて著者に賛同できるようでしたらご連絡ください
Amazon.com で最も参考になったカスタマーレビュー (beta)
Amazon.com:
197個のレビュー
219 人中、210人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Excellent Book on Randomness in Everyday Life
2008/5/17
形式:ハードカバー
I just love books like this - especially when they're as well-written as this one. The author, a physicist, proceeds to show the reader how randomness plays a much greater role in everyday life than one might think. As he discusses the basics of probability and statistics, he provides wonderful illustrations from fields as wide-ranging as sports, medicine, psychology, the stock market, etc., etc. He does an excellent job in driving home the fact that the true probability of events is not intuitive. Perhaps because of this anti-intuitiveness, I had to read a few paragraphs more than once to allow the point being made to sink in. One enigma that is particularly well explained is the Monty Hall (Let's Make a Deal) problem. The writing style is clear, accessible, very friendly, quite authoritative, engaging and often very witty. This book can be enjoyed by absolutely everyone, but I suspect that math and science buffs will savor it the most. By the way, the math-phobic need not fear: the book does not contain a single mathematical formula.
449 人中、409人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Competent but unoriginal
2008/5/18
形式:ハードカバー|Amazonが確認した購入
Promising prologue "... when chance is involved, people's thought processes are often seriously flawed .... [this book] is about the principles that govern chance, the development of those ideas, and the way they play out in business, medicine, economics, sports, ..." but a disappointing book. The book consists of a range of topics already well covered in a dozen previous popular science style books: history of probability (Cardano, Pascal, Bernoulli, Laplace, de Moivre) and of demographic and economic data; statistical logic (Bayes rule and false positives/negatives; Galton and the regression fallacy, normal curve and measurement error, mistaking random variation as being caused); overstating predictability in business affairs (past success doesn't ensure future success) and perennials such as Monty Hall, the gambler's fallacy, and hot hands.
These topics are presented in a way that's easy to read -- historical stories, anecdotes and experiments, with almost no mathematics. So it's a perfectly acceptable read if you haven't seen any of this material before before, but it doesn't bring any novel content or viewpoint to the table. Other books are equally informative and well written but have more interesting individual focus and panache:
Dicing with Death: Chance, Risk and Health shows hows to add analysis to anecdote,
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk has more intellectual discipline (staying focused on the current topic),
Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities gives a thorough treatment of implications of textbook theory,
The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari gives snippets of contemporary research,
Chances Are: Adventures in Probability has less hackneyed history,
and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is an engagingly opinionated view of chance in the stock market and life.
These topics are presented in a way that's easy to read -- historical stories, anecdotes and experiments, with almost no mathematics. So it's a perfectly acceptable read if you haven't seen any of this material before before, but it doesn't bring any novel content or viewpoint to the table. Other books are equally informative and well written but have more interesting individual focus and panache:
Dicing with Death: Chance, Risk and Health shows hows to add analysis to anecdote,
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk has more intellectual discipline (staying focused on the current topic),
Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities gives a thorough treatment of implications of textbook theory,
The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari gives snippets of contemporary research,
Chances Are: Adventures in Probability has less hackneyed history,
and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is an engagingly opinionated view of chance in the stock market and life.
256 人中、232人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Chances are good you'll like this one
2008/5/18
形式:ハードカバー|Amazonが確認した購入
This smart book will make you think. Academic yet easy to read, it explores how random events shape the world and how human intuition fights that fact. I found this point fascinating. It never occurred to me that our brains naturally want to see patterns and order, and life doesn't necessarily work like that.
It's comforting to think of an orderly world, with everything in its place, running according to plan. It dovetails into our yearning for meaning and control, and the need to feel that we are important. The idea of randomness is frightening. If the world is shaped without conscious decision, it's a pretty chilly prospect.
Author Leonard Mlodinow examines the importance of randomness in diverse situations, including Las Vegas roulette tables, "Let's Make a Deal," the career of Bruce Willis, and the Warsaw ghetto after Hitler invaded Poland. The author does a good job explaining how chance and luck are vital factors in how things turn out.
The cover has a nice touch. On the dust jacket, several die-cut holes reveal letters on the hardback underneath. The letters are the R and D in "Drunkard's," the A in "Walk," the N in "Randomness," the O in "Our" and the M in Mlodinow. These letters are connected by a thin red line. They spell out "RANDOM."
Here's the chapter list:
1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness
2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths
3. Finding Your Way Through a Space of Possibilities
4. Tracking the Pathways to Success
5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers
6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies
7. Measurement and the Law of Errors
8. The Order in Chaos
9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
10. The Drunkard's Walk
It's comforting to think of an orderly world, with everything in its place, running according to plan. It dovetails into our yearning for meaning and control, and the need to feel that we are important. The idea of randomness is frightening. If the world is shaped without conscious decision, it's a pretty chilly prospect.
Author Leonard Mlodinow examines the importance of randomness in diverse situations, including Las Vegas roulette tables, "Let's Make a Deal," the career of Bruce Willis, and the Warsaw ghetto after Hitler invaded Poland. The author does a good job explaining how chance and luck are vital factors in how things turn out.
The cover has a nice touch. On the dust jacket, several die-cut holes reveal letters on the hardback underneath. The letters are the R and D in "Drunkard's," the A in "Walk," the N in "Randomness," the O in "Our" and the M in Mlodinow. These letters are connected by a thin red line. They spell out "RANDOM."
Here's the chapter list:
1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness
2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths
3. Finding Your Way Through a Space of Possibilities
4. Tracking the Pathways to Success
5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers
6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies
7. Measurement and the Law of Errors
8. The Order in Chaos
9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
10. The Drunkard's Walk
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