Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 [ハードカバー]

I'm a huge fan of Michio Kaku's books, and "The Physics of the Future" is definitely not a disappointment. The book offers an expansive view of future technologies, and takes a new approach: Kaku plays journalist and interviews over 300 other top scientists in a variety of fields. The result is that you get the insights of those experts, but presented though the lens of Kaku's own deep understanding of physics and of what is ultimately likely to be possible or not.

Even though Kaku carefully grounds everything within the limits of the laws of nature, his specific predictions turn out to be pretty aggressive. He foresees technologies like "retinal display" contact lenses that connect directly to the internet, driverless cars, the mixing of real and virtual reality, and software "robotic doctors" that might replace most people's initial visit to the doctor and "correctly diagnose 95% of common ailments."

Kaku is also optimistic about progress in medicine, biotech and nanotechnology suggesting that we'll have medical "tricorders" like the ones on Star Trek, miniature nanobots coursing through our veins, advanced gene therapy, and maybe designer children. He even envisions that aging might be reversed and a nanotechnology "replicator" that would be able to construct almost anything from individual atoms might be possibilities by the year 2100.

Kaku also believe that computers, artificial intelligence and robots will advance rapidly, even though he foresees a possible slow down in the rate of improvement as Moore's Law potentially hits a wall. He's more conservative than people like Ray Kurzweil, suggesting that we might have true artificial intelligence or even conscious machines, but not until the end of the century.

One area where I think Kaku gets it wrong is in his discussion of how all this will impact the job market and the economy. He seems glued to the idea that only very repetitive jobs will be affected, giving factory workers as an example. Yet he talks of robots that will cook and software that will do the jobs of doctors, and might even become conscious. It seems clear that technology like that would be able to do the jobs of millions of people who sit in offices or work in the service industries and pretty much do the same sorts of things over and over again.

Anyone interested in the economic or employment market impact of these technologies should also read The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future,which looks at many of the same technologies discussed by Kaku and focuses on how they will affect the economy. Maybe Kaku fails to see the possible impact because he has a job as a theoretical physicist and spends most of his time thinking very deep thoughts. Most other people spend a lot of time doing more routine things and intelligent software and robots are definitely going to threaten a lot of those jobs.

Otherwise, "The Physics of the Future" is a great read with many important insights into future technologies. Read it along with "The Lights in the Tunnel" for a good overview of how the next few decades may turn out.

Physics of the Future by Michio Kaku

"Physics of the Future" is a fabulous, thought-provoking, engaging and accessible book on the physics of the future. What sets this book apart, is Dr. Kaku's prodigious knowledge and his innate ability to convey complex topics in an engaging conversational manner. This fantastic 416-page book is composed of the following nine chapters: 1. Future of the Computer: Mind over Matter, 2. Future of AI: Rise of the Machines, 3. Future of Medicine: Perfection and Beyond, 4. Nanotechnology: Everything from Nothing?, 5. Future of Energy: Energy from the Stars, 6. Future of Space Travel: To the Stars, 7. Future of Wealth, 8. Future of Humanity: Planetary Civilization, and 9. A Day in the Life in 2100.

Positives:
1. Engaging scientific writing for the masses. Dr. Kaku gets it and he knows how to relay his knowledge in a lucid and entertaining manner.
2. Great format. Each chapter begins with a couple of chapter appropriate quotes, an appetizer of an introduction (with a little mythology analogy for good measure) and then broken out by three subchapters: Near Future (Present to 2030), Midcentury (2030 to 2070), and Far Future (2070 to 2100).
3. Great use of popular culture to make his points easy to convey. The use of popular Sci-Fi movies to explain complex concepts is brilliant.
4. A fantastic idea of a book and I couldn't be happier that Dr. Kaku is the mastermind behind it. Great wisdom throughout.
5. Great science for all to enjoy. The future looks fascinating.
6. Finally, a fun, profound yet accessible book about physics of the future.
7. This book is like the behind the scenes look at the science behind the best Sci-Fi movies ever. Excellent!
8. The best way to predict the future is to consult the greatest minds, the subject matter experts and Dr. Kaku does exactly that.
9. How the four fundamental forces changed human history.
10. The future of Moore's law.
11. Our minds will control computers...just make sure husbands get this technology before the wives do.
12. Will robots inherit the earth? Only if they're fembots but I digress.
13. Fascinating look at why brains are superior to computers. I think.
14. Optogenetics...optowhat? Read and find out. I see.
15. Punctuated equilibrium best describes the way in which progress is made.
16. The fascinating future of medicine. You shall be healed.
17. We must clone Dr. Kaku.
18. Designer children, too late for me...
19. I want to be a geneticist...
20. "The quantum theory has one thing going for it: it is correct." Love that quote.
21. Nanotechnology...no small feat.
22. Energy saving ideas. Like you've never seen before. Powerful stuff.
23. Global warming...the topic just keeps heating up. Great explanation.
24. Space technology is far out!
25. The number 25,000 has a totally new significance to me. You can count on it.
26. New propulsion systems considered. It's not like it's rocket science...oh wait it is.
27. Science and technology are the engines of prosperity. NEMA.
28. The rise of intellectual capitalism. My two cents.
29. The importance of using science for the good of our planet.
30. Dr. Kaku does a wonderful job of tying everything together with an amusing story.
31. Great list of notes and a recommended reading list that has my attention.
32. Fascinating book from cover to cover.

Negatives:
1. Links didn't work.
2. Some folks, particular those in the science field, may object to the book being "dumbed" down. I have no complaints since the book was meant for the masses.
3. Having to wait for Mr. Kaku's next book.

In summary, this book is a real treat. I absolutely loved it. Great science, interesting facts, and a fascinating look at the future. Dr. Kaku is such an engaging, brilliant man; he tackles an ambitious project like this and succeeds on all accounts. This is the reason why I love science and this is the reason I enjoy reading books. I can't recommend this book enough. A well deserved 5-star book. Bravo!

First, I'm a big fan of Michio, which is why I purchased the book. But I've noticed a frustrating pattern with his books over the years, he dumbs down the concepts he writes about more and more with each book. Okay, I get it, speaking to the lowest common denominator is important to get your message across. But remember, Michio, you need to speak to the lowest common denominator of people who read books about physics. Unfortunately, this seems to be lost on Michio. This book barely even covers any physics until the second half of the book, and even then the book is mostly about implementations of technology. I estimate that 80% the first 2/5 of the book covers medicine, genetics and other life sciences concepts.

But what is perhaps most disappointing about this book, is Michio's fantastic underestimation of how fast our technology will progress in the coming years. (In order to avoid spoilers I will try to speak in generalities for the most part) In the introduction to the book, Michio clearly explains that "prototypes of all the technologies mentioned...already exist". Fine, it's great that Michio had the best intentions by making predictions based on "real" and "tangible" examples. Unfortunately what ends up happening is that Michio predicts with awe and reverence how, for example, 30 to 70 years from now "augmented reality" will be accessible to everyone, and the examples he gives for how augmented reality will change our lives are just, well, boring, trite, and seriously underestimate the power of this concept. How do I know? Because I (along with many thousands of other iphone and android users) have been using augmented reality apps on my phone for the last couple of years that are far more interesting and powerful in how they impact my life than what Michio predicts will occur in 30 to 70 years. I was reading his predictions thinking, "wow, has Michio even researched what's happening in augmented reality TODAY?" I'm sure some people who have read the book will disagree with my point here, but keep in mind that he focused the entire section of the book on the impact of augmented reality in the next 30 to 70 years, but augmented reality is happening today. The only thing that hasn't is the methods of delivery he describes (I don't want to be specific to avoid spoilers).

Another thing that frustrates me lately about Michio is his increasing trend towards predicting the limitations of certain technologies; but with poor logic. For instance, he likes to pontificate about the "death of Moore's law" and the "limitations of aritificial intelligence", but seems to repeatedly underestimate the power of compounding, exponential growth of technology and information, and creative solutions that even he might not be aware of. For instance, when considering artificial intelligence, Michio seems to only consider the "innate" local intelligence of computers (or even robots), and doesn't tip his hat to the fact that 1) we already live in a completely networked society, so the intelligence computers are NOT capped by power of their local transistors, but by the intelligence of ALL computers everywhere, collectively. I'm not a supporter of "spontaneous" intelligence arising from connected machines, but I do think that it's relevant to consider the growth of networked computers when considering the limitations of computing power; 2) unlike *people* who, when they die, leave all of their accumulated knowledge behind, computers will pass their aggregate memes, learning experiences, nuances and vast store of memories from one generation of machines to the next. It seems that Michio's idea of robots and computers is similar to the AI from the movies in the 1950s through 1990s: when a robot dies, their memories die with them... That hasn't been the case since computers have existed, and it's silly to think that as progress is made with AI that each successive generation of artificial intelligence will have to start all over again on the learning curve. Clearly, they will have the ability to pick up right where the last generation left off without any information lost. and 3) the rapidly convergence of technologies is already negating the importance of Moore's law which predicts the rate at which transistors can be sqeezed onto integrated circuits, and how price will decrease accordingly. He places waaaay too much importance on the death of Moore's law. It really doesn't matter if Moore's law doesn't continue to hold true after the year 2020 because we can continue to receive exponential benefits from technology and information from an infinite number of other technological advancements. Software today is so inefficient that the potential benefits from software improvements alone are staggering. From Michio's perspective, however, Moore's prediction about the efficiency and price-performance of transistors will limit are technological progress after the year 2020. Predicting the death of this linear growth without considering how other converging technologies will make Moore's law irrelevant is incredibly short-sighted. Let's assume Moore's law does break down in 2020. Scientists (and big business) will look to other areas to pick up the slack: improved software, massively parallel processing, cloud computing, grid computing, solid state hard drives, quantum computing, etc. the sum total impact of all of these things trumps linear advancements in raw (local) computing power from shrinking transistors.

I'm disappointed because there were so many other things Michio could have focused on besides medicine and genetic engineering. Those topics are interesting, but they didn't get the treatment they deserved in a book called "Physics of the Future", written by a physicist. I couldn't believe how much Michio focused on biology, all the while missing a perfect opportunity to discuss synthetic biology and the convergence of nanotech with biology. He barely skimmed this topic, and spent chapters on genetic engineering. Interesting, but not physics.

As for his predictions on the impact of technology on capitalism, I think he should stick to physics. Our concepts about the "enterprise" and how individuals provide value in exchange for compensation are already starting to change, and this will only accelerate and compound in the years to come.

I don't want to sound like sour grapes because I actually really like Michio and I (usually) enjoy reading his books, but I have to say I'm disappointed with the simple-speak in this book. Michio spent way too much time talking about commercial technologies that have nothing to do with physics, and not enough time talking about many other interesting and speculative areas pf physics that might bring completely new technologies to fruition in the next 100 years. For that reason among others, I have a hard time recommending this book.