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内容説明
There are many misconceptions about the future of global energy often presented as fact by the media, politicians, business leaders, activists, and even scientists--wasting time and money and hampering the development of progressive energy policies. Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate debunks the most common fallacies to make way for a constructive, scientific approach to the global energy challenge. When will the world run out of oil? Should nuclear energy be adopted on a larger scale? Are ethanol and wind power viable sources of energy for the future? Vaclav Smil advises the public to be wary of exaggerated claims and impossible promises. The global energy transition will be prolonged and expensive--and hinges on the development of an extensive new infrastructure. Established technologies and traditional energy sources are persistent and adaptable enough to see the world through that transition. Energy Myths and Realities brings a scientific perspective to an issue often dominated by groundless assertions, unfounded claims, and uncritical thinking. Before we can create sound energy policies for the future, we must renounce the popular myths that cloud our judgment and impede true progress.
著者について
Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor of Environment and Environmental Geography at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg.
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29 人中、27人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Energy Generation: The Hard Facts Unveiled
2010/9/8
形式:ハードカバー
We have often heard authoritative statements made by various reputable individuals about new ideas for producing plenty of energy in the near future - cleanly, efficiently and cheaply. These often involved new approaches combined with new scientific/technological advances of various sorts. But as the months, years and even decades pass by, we are left still waiting for these ideas, or perhaps some offshoots, to materialize. In this book, the author explains the reasons for these shortcomings and warns about any such statements that may currently being made. As the author puts it, the book is "aimed at criticizing assorted myths and misconceptions [about energy-related issues], and in doing so has mostly had to correct excessively positive or unjustifiably enthusiastic expectations and interpretation" (p. 156). Only in one case presented in the book has the opposite been done, i.e., to address a myth that is unjustifiably too negative. The myths discussed are related to: electric cars, cheap nuclear electricity, soft energy, peak oil, i.e., the so-called Hubbert's peak, sequestration of carbon dioxide, liquid fuel from plants, electricity from wind, and the pace of energy transitions. For some, this book may be an eye-opener; for others, it may confirm their suspicions. And for the enthusiasts who are, in all honesty, promoting some of these myths, the hard facts presented may be terribly discouraging.
The writing style is clear, occasionally witty, very authoritative, rather formal but also relatively accessible. The book reads like a set of scientific reports - one for each topic being addressed; consequently, one might say that the prose is often rather dry. As is standard for scientific reports, the text is dense with information, contains a great many facts and figures, has several useful diagrams and is extensively referenced. This book is likely to be most appreciated by those who are concerned about future energy production/consumption, e.g., policy makers, politicians, scientists, engineers and interested members of the public.
The writing style is clear, occasionally witty, very authoritative, rather formal but also relatively accessible. The book reads like a set of scientific reports - one for each topic being addressed; consequently, one might say that the prose is often rather dry. As is standard for scientific reports, the text is dense with information, contains a great many facts and figures, has several useful diagrams and is extensively referenced. This book is likely to be most appreciated by those who are concerned about future energy production/consumption, e.g., policy makers, politicians, scientists, engineers and interested members of the public.
2 人中、2人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Not unproblematic, but it did make me think
2011/11/6
形式:ハードカバー
Vaclav Smil's "Energy myths and realities" is a relatively good and interesting book on the alternatives to fossil fuels. The author discusses electric cars, wind power, solar power, biofuels and nuclear power. In fact, he debunks them! For instance, replacing fossil fuels with biofuels would lead to massive environmental destruction, less land available for food production and perhaps even massive starvation due to increased food prices. Wind power and solar power would only work in some areas, and can never replace fossil fuels on a national or global scale. "Greens" won't like this book. Smil is also sceptical of grand schemes for carbon sequestration, however, which presumably would make his book controversial among cornucopians, as well.
The book has two shortcomings. One is that it tends to conflate technical problems and political problems. The problems with wind power are obviously technical, which makes this particular form of energy unrealistic no matter what. However, the problems Smil mentions in conjunction with nuclear power seem mostly political: economic downturns, curious political decisions, bureaucratic regulations and fear-mongering affecting public perception. Perhaps they are difficult to solve, but they are not unsolvable in principle. It's unclear why Smil gives nuclear power short shrift in this manner, and why he writes off breeder reactors (which, of course, work eminently well, if governments build them).
The other problem is that Smil doesn't say how the energy crisis should be solved in the first place. Since he does believe in global warming being a problem, he should be for a phase-out of fossil fuels. Yet, since he debunks all alternatives to fossil fuels, the reader is left wondering what on earth we should do next. He concedes that nuclear power might play a "modest" role in the future, but what should play the predominant role? Smil never says.
Perhaps he secretly supports oil, coal and gas?
Still, I'll give the book four stars out of five. For a long time, I assumed (together with many others!) that we can replace both fossil fuels and nuclear with solar, wind, hydro, biofuels, recycled garbage and some rather exotic alternatives ("wave power" etc). And, of course, energy conservation. Of these, only hydro is controversial in "Green" circles. Smil's book, and some other reading, made me realize that this seemingly sensible position is actually an adaptation to the zero-growth message of the Green movement. Most of these "alternatives" cannot meet present or future demand, and the only one that perhaps could do it (biofuel) is undesirable. The search for "renewable" energy is a wild goose chase. Or worse.
At least, "Energy myths and realities" makes this perfectly clear. The book made me more convinced that we need to solve the political/economic problems hampering the expansion of nuclear power, and put more money into developing new forms of this particular energy source. If we don't, we'll be stuck with oil, coal and peat! And perhaps recycled garbage.
The book has two shortcomings. One is that it tends to conflate technical problems and political problems. The problems with wind power are obviously technical, which makes this particular form of energy unrealistic no matter what. However, the problems Smil mentions in conjunction with nuclear power seem mostly political: economic downturns, curious political decisions, bureaucratic regulations and fear-mongering affecting public perception. Perhaps they are difficult to solve, but they are not unsolvable in principle. It's unclear why Smil gives nuclear power short shrift in this manner, and why he writes off breeder reactors (which, of course, work eminently well, if governments build them).
The other problem is that Smil doesn't say how the energy crisis should be solved in the first place. Since he does believe in global warming being a problem, he should be for a phase-out of fossil fuels. Yet, since he debunks all alternatives to fossil fuels, the reader is left wondering what on earth we should do next. He concedes that nuclear power might play a "modest" role in the future, but what should play the predominant role? Smil never says.
Perhaps he secretly supports oil, coal and gas?
Still, I'll give the book four stars out of five. For a long time, I assumed (together with many others!) that we can replace both fossil fuels and nuclear with solar, wind, hydro, biofuels, recycled garbage and some rather exotic alternatives ("wave power" etc). And, of course, energy conservation. Of these, only hydro is controversial in "Green" circles. Smil's book, and some other reading, made me realize that this seemingly sensible position is actually an adaptation to the zero-growth message of the Green movement. Most of these "alternatives" cannot meet present or future demand, and the only one that perhaps could do it (biofuel) is undesirable. The search for "renewable" energy is a wild goose chase. Or worse.
At least, "Energy myths and realities" makes this perfectly clear. The book made me more convinced that we need to solve the political/economic problems hampering the expansion of nuclear power, and put more money into developing new forms of this particular energy source. If we don't, we'll be stuck with oil, coal and peat! And perhaps recycled garbage.
30 人中、21人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Odd
2010/12/21
形式:ハードカバー
Smil is a complete genius -- I have six of his books (where does he find the time?) -- but this one is a disappointment. The best part of the book (like the others) is that he is able to marshall a vast amount of fact just when you need it in a discussion in a pointed way: a gold mine. It is also good that he skewers a lot of sacred cows: the Hypercar is only one!. It is interesting that the book is published by the American Enterprise Institute and has blurbs on it about the free market, whereas the book says nothing about the glories of the free market. Perhaps they just liked the part about peak oil taking longer to peak than ecowisdom has it. It is hardly, for example, a screed for nuclear power (he points out the difficulties of a nuclear renaissance and the absurdity of expecting it to save the world). Further, if Smil was in cahoots with the oil and coal world, his chapter debunking carbon capture and storage would hardly have been written. The conservative part of the book is, naturally enough, how slow things are to change in energy use: Smil doesn't really say whether this is a good thing or not; it is just how things are.
I would argue that he seriously underplays the prospects for energy conservation in tandem with strong leadership setting goals and frames in a deliberate move towards overall social transformation for the planetary good (and personal wellbeing). The final message of the book is horribly bleak, which the author (and publishers) seem not to notice. If Smil is right, then the lag times between now and the solution are so long that the planet is essentially cooked. He says nothing about this, just ends.
The fatal flaw in the book is the assumption that human beings and societies are incapable of radical change. Historically, this is untrue. We have Islam and the Russian Revolution as excellent examples of the world changed on a dime when the time is ripe. This can happen with energy: but it will require leadership and crisis and an ethical shift -- all three at once. Anything short of that (Smil is right here) will have so much inertia to fight against that it won't be able to do the job. But it is possible. Certainly the market won't do it -- at least it might if there was a free market, but there hasn't been one for two hundred years, and there won't be one any time soon. The fossil fuel barons who own the governments and institutions wouldn't let that happen. There is too much money and power at stake for anything to be left to something as fickle as the market. Someone might inform the American Enterprise Institute about that, if they have a moment.
I would argue that he seriously underplays the prospects for energy conservation in tandem with strong leadership setting goals and frames in a deliberate move towards overall social transformation for the planetary good (and personal wellbeing). The final message of the book is horribly bleak, which the author (and publishers) seem not to notice. If Smil is right, then the lag times between now and the solution are so long that the planet is essentially cooked. He says nothing about this, just ends.
The fatal flaw in the book is the assumption that human beings and societies are incapable of radical change. Historically, this is untrue. We have Islam and the Russian Revolution as excellent examples of the world changed on a dime when the time is ripe. This can happen with energy: but it will require leadership and crisis and an ethical shift -- all three at once. Anything short of that (Smil is right here) will have so much inertia to fight against that it won't be able to do the job. But it is possible. Certainly the market won't do it -- at least it might if there was a free market, but there hasn't been one for two hundred years, and there won't be one any time soon. The fossil fuel barons who own the governments and institutions wouldn't let that happen. There is too much money and power at stake for anything to be left to something as fickle as the market. Someone might inform the American Enterprise Institute about that, if they have a moment.
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