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A revolutionary new theory showing how we can predict human behavior-from a radical genius and bestselling author
Can we scientifically predict our future? Scientists and pseudo scientists have been pursuing this mystery for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But now, astonishing new research is revealing patterns in human behavior previously thought to be purely random. Precise, orderly, predictable patterns...
Albert Laszlo Barabasi, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts, a stunningly original investigation into human nature. His approach relies on the digital reality of our world, from mobile phones to the Internet and email, because it has turned society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time stamped texts, voicemails, and internet searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set of statistics that track our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. The pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Randomness does not rule our lives in the way scientists have assumed up until now.
Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabasi artfully weaves together the story of a 16th century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post 9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabási's astonishingly wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas include how dollar bills move around the U.S., the pattern everyone follows in writing email, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical, mathematically described bursty pattern emerges.
Bursts reveals what this amazing new research is showing us about where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.
Can we scientifically predict our future? Scientists and pseudo scientists have been pursuing this mystery for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But now, astonishing new research is revealing patterns in human behavior previously thought to be purely random. Precise, orderly, predictable patterns...
Albert Laszlo Barabasi, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts, a stunningly original investigation into human nature. His approach relies on the digital reality of our world, from mobile phones to the Internet and email, because it has turned society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time stamped texts, voicemails, and internet searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set of statistics that track our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. The pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Randomness does not rule our lives in the way scientists have assumed up until now.
Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabasi artfully weaves together the story of a 16th century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post 9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabási's astonishingly wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas include how dollar bills move around the U.S., the pattern everyone follows in writing email, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical, mathematically described bursty pattern emerges.
Bursts reveals what this amazing new research is showing us about where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.
著者について
Albert-László Barabási is a pioneer of real-world network theory and author of the bestseller, Linked: How Everything is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life. At 32, he was the youngest professor to be named the Emil T. Hofmann Professor of Physics at the University of Notre Dame and has won numerous awards for his work, including the FEBS Anniversary Prize for Systems Biology and the John von Neumann Medal for outstanding achievements. He currently lives in Boston and is Distinguished Professor and Director of the Center for Network Science at Northeastern University.
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211 人中、203人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Is this a joke?
2010/5/11
形式:ハードカバー|Amazonが確認した購入
I thought Albert-László Barabási's first book, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means," was excellent (see my 4/18/10 review), so I looked forward to reading "Bursts" with great anticipation, hoping that he was going update us on all the interesting things he learned in the intervening 8 years (especially related to biomedicine and cancer). Instead, having just finished "Bursts," it's hard to convey how disappointed I am.
While "Linked" presented plenty of solid and useful science in an appealing format, "Bursts" has minimal scientific content and I learned almost nothing. The only significant idea Barabási presents is that the time-spacing of many events in the natural and artifical worlds follows a power law distribution, which means that events have some tendency to cluster into "bursts," although very widely spaced events can also occur, since power laws have "long tails" rather than dropping off exponentially (as Barabási himself acknowledges in passing, "bursts" is a somewhat misleading term, since power law distributions are continuous, not dichotomous). But Barabási doesn't offer much explanation for the ubiquity of these power laws, nor does he offer useful insights regarding their implications.
He does try to argue that awareness of these power laws will eventually enable precise prediction of human behavior, but this is simultaneously both obvious and wrong (and it's telling that Barabási appears to be unaware of the seminal work of Quetelet on this topic). It's obvious because we already know that people are necessarily creatures of routine and habit, so where we are and what we're doing will often be predictable. But it's wrong because, like the weather, our lives also involve volatility and bifurcation points, such that much that's important about our individual and collective lives will remain unpredictable. I've experienced this in my own life in profound ways, and so have you (think back, and you'll recall some pivotal moments).
Most of the book is actually taken up by a discussion of an episode from Hungarian history of the 1500s. This may interest Barabási for personal reasons, and perhaps it satisfies some urge to be a historian or novelist (which he apparently has a knack for), but it has no place in this book. I kept waiting for this plot and other plots interwoven throughout the book to all gel together in the end, but they never did -- I feel like I was waiting for Godot.
Overall, this book was a waste of money and (more importantly) time. The only redeeming feature is that I was able to read it quickly (three days), but that's small consolation. I really don't know what Barabási was thinking. I must also add that I was partly swayed to read this book by the endorsement from Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the back cover; that endorsement has unfortunately harmed Taleb's credibility in my eyes.
While "Linked" presented plenty of solid and useful science in an appealing format, "Bursts" has minimal scientific content and I learned almost nothing. The only significant idea Barabási presents is that the time-spacing of many events in the natural and artifical worlds follows a power law distribution, which means that events have some tendency to cluster into "bursts," although very widely spaced events can also occur, since power laws have "long tails" rather than dropping off exponentially (as Barabási himself acknowledges in passing, "bursts" is a somewhat misleading term, since power law distributions are continuous, not dichotomous). But Barabási doesn't offer much explanation for the ubiquity of these power laws, nor does he offer useful insights regarding their implications.
He does try to argue that awareness of these power laws will eventually enable precise prediction of human behavior, but this is simultaneously both obvious and wrong (and it's telling that Barabási appears to be unaware of the seminal work of Quetelet on this topic). It's obvious because we already know that people are necessarily creatures of routine and habit, so where we are and what we're doing will often be predictable. But it's wrong because, like the weather, our lives also involve volatility and bifurcation points, such that much that's important about our individual and collective lives will remain unpredictable. I've experienced this in my own life in profound ways, and so have you (think back, and you'll recall some pivotal moments).
Most of the book is actually taken up by a discussion of an episode from Hungarian history of the 1500s. This may interest Barabási for personal reasons, and perhaps it satisfies some urge to be a historian or novelist (which he apparently has a knack for), but it has no place in this book. I kept waiting for this plot and other plots interwoven throughout the book to all gel together in the end, but they never did -- I feel like I was waiting for Godot.
Overall, this book was a waste of money and (more importantly) time. The only redeeming feature is that I was able to read it quickly (three days), but that's small consolation. I really don't know what Barabási was thinking. I must also add that I was partly swayed to read this book by the endorsement from Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the back cover; that endorsement has unfortunately harmed Taleb's credibility in my eyes.
51 人中、47人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Long on story; little science!
2010/6/1
形式:ハードカバー
I'm not the only reviewer expressing strong disappointment with this book. Barabasi did such a masterful job with Linked that I grabbed this book to moment I saw it hoping for more of the same "can't put it down" reading I got with Linked. Wow was I surprised--and not in a good way.
This book is not Linked nor anything like it, beware! Linked was a very well crafted story that explained various complex topics about networks. Bursts is pop-science at best. Worse, like other reviewers, I too am totally annoyed by the Hungarian history lesson from the 1500s that takes up every other chapter. And, after reading one of these POINTLESS chapters you feel like, "what was this supposed to add to the overall understanding of the topic?" The answer is little to nothing.
Bursts lacks the insightful and useful science that Linked gave us. The references/notes are OK, not fantastic like in Linked. The book uses a lot of text to make some rather simple points about behavior. We behave in bursts, not randomly. Bursts (activity clusters in time) exhibit power law characteristics. In the future, since behavior is not random, perhaps it can be better predicted.
Save your money and your time! At best, wait for the paperback (if it makes it that far) and read it at the beach. Better still, do a second reading of Linked, you'll get more out of it that you would Bursts. Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means
This book is not Linked nor anything like it, beware! Linked was a very well crafted story that explained various complex topics about networks. Bursts is pop-science at best. Worse, like other reviewers, I too am totally annoyed by the Hungarian history lesson from the 1500s that takes up every other chapter. And, after reading one of these POINTLESS chapters you feel like, "what was this supposed to add to the overall understanding of the topic?" The answer is little to nothing.
Bursts lacks the insightful and useful science that Linked gave us. The references/notes are OK, not fantastic like in Linked. The book uses a lot of text to make some rather simple points about behavior. We behave in bursts, not randomly. Bursts (activity clusters in time) exhibit power law characteristics. In the future, since behavior is not random, perhaps it can be better predicted.
Save your money and your time! At best, wait for the paperback (if it makes it that far) and read it at the beach. Better still, do a second reading of Linked, you'll get more out of it that you would Bursts. Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means
20 人中、19人の方が、｢このレビューが参考になった｣と投票しています。
Three-Card Monte Social Science
2010/6/30
形式:ハードカバー
Here in the Bronx there is a street scam called three-card monte. A person skillfully manipulates three cards, moving them around on a makeshift table, usually the bottom of a large, upside down cardboard box. The object of the game is to pick the ace among the three cards, after the scammer comes to a full stop and lays the three cards face down. To lure an innocent victim, the shuffler has two or three partners stand around the box, pretending to play. One of the partners will then "guess" the right card, and the shuffler will "pay" him or her $20 for the win. Naive innocent onlookers will then play and lose their bet as the skilled shuffler will do whatever trick it is he does to ensure that the victim does not win. All along during the shuffling the victims are flashed for an instant a view of the ace, which then disappears, never to resurface after the victim makes his or her choice.
Reading Bursts felt something like being taken at a three card monte game. The author jumps back and forth between a convoluted, though admittedly interesting, historical epoch in Hungary, and then back to studies and analysis done about different behavioral phenomena, like the way people use their cell phones, or respond to email or correspondence, or how dollar bills circulate, and then back to the Hungarian episode, and then back to the research, and now we hop back to a story about a Muslim surnamed individual who seems to be an exception to the author's findings, back to the history, back to more research, and on and on. The ace among the cards is Barabasi's claim that people tend to behave in "bursty" ways, that is doing some things intensively over a short period of time, and then doing nothing or very little of that thing for a long time. I don't particularly see why this is so revolutionary.
Knowing that we behave like this will supposedly, at some time in the future when the technological stars align properly, allow prediction of human behavior and we will enter the realm of the creepy, where our future whereabouts and actions could be tracked for nefarious purposes. Perhaps this is true, and if so, significant, but Barbarasi expresses very weak conviction about this, consistent with his waffling and vagueness about other details of his "breakthrough" discovery. Because of all the above, the reader is left with the feeling that someone has tried to elevate commons sense to some esoteric art and perhaps has been duped by three card monte social science.
Reading Bursts felt something like being taken at a three card monte game. The author jumps back and forth between a convoluted, though admittedly interesting, historical epoch in Hungary, and then back to studies and analysis done about different behavioral phenomena, like the way people use their cell phones, or respond to email or correspondence, or how dollar bills circulate, and then back to the Hungarian episode, and then back to the research, and now we hop back to a story about a Muslim surnamed individual who seems to be an exception to the author's findings, back to the history, back to more research, and on and on. The ace among the cards is Barabasi's claim that people tend to behave in "bursty" ways, that is doing some things intensively over a short period of time, and then doing nothing or very little of that thing for a long time. I don't particularly see why this is so revolutionary.
Knowing that we behave like this will supposedly, at some time in the future when the technological stars align properly, allow prediction of human behavior and we will enter the realm of the creepy, where our future whereabouts and actions could be tracked for nefarious purposes. Perhaps this is true, and if so, significant, but Barbarasi expresses very weak conviction about this, consistent with his waffling and vagueness about other details of his "breakthrough" discovery. Because of all the above, the reader is left with the feeling that someone has tried to elevate commons sense to some esoteric art and perhaps has been duped by three card monte social science.
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